Originally published by Radio Australia,12 Aug 2010

A a top general has made bold calls for the reform of China’s political system, saying the country must move towards American-style democracy or risk collapse.

General Liu Yazhou is the political commissar of the National Defence University… the training schools for army generals… and has family connections to the nation’s political elite. His comments though, published in the Hong Kong magazine Phoenix, ocassionally quite funny… he describes the American democratic model as being “designed by a genius for the operation of the stupid”. But the article is radical warning that China could go the way of the former Soviet union and collapse unless reforms are made quickly.

Presenter: Liam Cochrane
Speaker: Professor June Teufel Dreyer, from the Department of Political Science at University of Miami

COCHRANE: Now General Liu has predicted that within ten years there will be what he describes as an inevitable shift from an authoritarian political system to democracy. Just how radical is this kind of public comment from such a senior official in China?

DREYER: It is incredibly radical. Not even leaders who have been purged for being outspoken and are in favour of just reforms, let alone democratic reforms have gotten away with it. Hu Yaobang was ousted in 1987 and Zhao Ziyang in 1989 for making much less radical and actually most of them within the small group of the politburo reform statements, and that a military person could be this outspoken is even more amazing. Now I will say he’s protected because he’s part of the ‘princelings’ faction, that is people who are very well connected because their parents and in some cases in-laws were founding members of the Communist Party. And General Liu is one of those, so he has a somewhat protected status.

COCHRANE: And yet while many of those so-called princelings have used their positions to accumulate wealth and power, General Liu seems to be using his political protection as you describe it to give him a platform to make these kind of comments. Could we be seeing in his comments, and in this general, a kind of a new Chinese leader emergency?

DREYER: We could but I think the succession for the successor to Hu and Wen has really pretty much been settled and I don’t think it will be he [General Liu], and it will be interesting to see what happens because the anointed is actually a princeling as well, Xi Jinping. And it will be interesting to see if he or anybody else in this charmed leadership succession circle is going to come out in favour of his reports, or what is more likely they’re just going to drop like a heavy stone in the water without leaving any rings.

COCHRANE: One of the other interesting comments that General Liu made was when he criticised “money worship” was his term and also corruption, and he gave the example in the article of Chinese investors paying bribes to African officials – quite a frank acknowledgement that this is going on. Now how are these comments about corruption likely to be seen both from those at the top of government, and also from average Chinese people on the street?

DREYER: Well the average Chinese in the street is very, very familiar with corruption and very, very bothered by it. So I think that the average person if they are able to read this Phoenix article would be very, very happy to see it. By now of course the Chinese people have gotten understandably cynical, everybody’s against corruption but nobody does anything about it, is the common grumble. And if they perceive him as genuinely wanting to do something about it, which I think they probably will, it could put on a groundswell in his favour, but on the other hand, the ones in the charmed circle aren’t likely to be happy to hear that.

COCHRANE: Now these comments from General Liu, they’re not the only ones that we’re hearing recently, there’s been an open petition from an economics professor, it was sent to the President titled “China’s Road To Ruin and The Way Out”. And there’s been other articles by scholars suggesting that China’s becoming a bit arrogant about its economic success. Is this part of a wider dialogue that’s opening up within the country?

DREYER: Well it would be interesting to know if General Liu has any contacts with these people in any way, because intellectuals have been complaining for years, but I think the government feels that since no-one listens to intellectuals they’re safe. But a general speaking out is something quite different.

http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/connectasia/stories/201008/s2980865.htm