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Dancing with the dragon

Originally published by The Miami Herald,10 June 2010

BY GREGG FIELDS
[email protected]

 Ican’t wipe the image out of my head: The bodies of South Korean sailors bobbing in the cold sea, victims of a brutal mass murder that the brutal mass murderer who runs North Korea is apparently going to get away with.

I was living in Hong Kong when the Cheonan went down, and I remember thinking — or hoping — that finally, and thankfully, the rulers of China would stand up forcefully to Pyongyang. I expected China to finally, and thankfully, join the U.S. in condemning Asian terrorism. I thought Beijing would finally, and thankfully, assert global leadership commensurate with its economic power.

But, of course, it didn’t happen. Rather, the nutty dictator of North Korea, Kim Jong Il, instead traveled by private train to Beijing just days later.

No one knows what was said, but it doesn’t appear the meeting was more tense than usual.

Instead, China has largely ignored America’s, and the world’s, calls to condemn North Korea. South Korea got a tepid condolence from Beijing.

There’s still the possibility that war could break out in the Korean peninsula. But my suspicion is that the episode will blow over.

However, I predict its legacy will last. After two years of living in China — first in Beijing, then in Hong Kong — it is clear that China and the United States will forever be at diplomatic loggerheads. Their objectives are almost always different. Their approaches are studies in contrast. And their national interests are almost diametrically opposed.

This flies in the face of conventional wisdom. The notion of a “Chimerica” ruling the world was wildly popular just a few years back. Most of the free world willingly winked when they voted to let China join the World Trade Organization, even though it fell far short of most membership requirements.

True, the Beijing-Washington axis has many strengths. Even China’s Marxists don’t believe in Marxist economics any more. China today is an exciting place, and its engagement by America is a leading reason why.

It’s also why a “hot” war in East Asia seems unlikely. China is rapidly developing its military, particularly its naval capability. But South Korea is an important trade partner, and the United States is a cornerstone of China’s economy.

Nor does China want a Soviet-style Cold War with America. Unlike the USSR, China has a lot of vested economic interests with America. It wants technology and money, and America is the best place to get them.

The long-term trend? Call it “The Cool War.” China won’t be overtly hostile to U.S. diplomatic efforts, but Chimerica is a pipe dream.

Geography is one major reason why. North Korea is, frankly, a strange place, but for Beijing it’s a convenient plug that prevents South Korea from bobbing up to its border.

Iran clearly deserves international sanctions for its nuclear program, and China should have stood firm with Washington on the matter. But flanked on the west by states such as Pakistan and Afghanistan, with a domestic Islamic population — the Uighurs — restive to the point of rioting, China is playing a passive role. Islam aside, it isn’t in the mood to annoy oil suppliers of any ilk.

Concerning human rights: The Chinese government doesn’t seem to get the U.S. obsession with them. And the bulk of the Chinese population doesn’t, either. The urban Chinese of today can buy food at supermarkets, drive cars and send their one child to college. That’s freedom that perhaps Americans can’t appreciate.

China is a land of unfathomable contradictions. The work ethic, personal honesty and creativity are striking. But so is the official corruption, the jailing of dissidents and the lack of transparency.

Economically, we are bound. But diplomatically, the Cool War is on.

Former Miami Herald economics writer Gregg Fields most recently taught graduate financial journalism at Hong Kong Baptist University and was previously a consultant for the International Center for Journalists at Beijing’s Tsinghua University.  

http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/06/10/1672411/dancing-with-the-dragon.html