The WSJ, 17 November 2011
Beijing is caught in a diplomatic bear trap of its own making. After trying to bully the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) into not discussing disputes over the South China Sea at a summit this weekend in Bali, the territorial dispute is becoming the meeting’s focus.

The trouble proceeds from China’s opening position: Its claim to “indisputable” sovereignty over 90% of the South China Sea. In reality, Beijing wants to gain maximum access to fish stocks and hydrocarbons through bilateral negotiations with each of the other four claimants. To increase its leverage, it has threatened international oil firms that signed South China Sea deals with Asean countries with the loss of business inside China. The People’s Liberation Army has also harassed ships on the high seas.

As the rising economic and military power, Beijing seems to believe it holds most of the cards and will hold more as time goes on. But even great powers soon find that overreaching is costly. China’s assertion that the South China Sea is its “historical waters” is not based on any accepted concept of international law.

Vietnam and the Philippines, the two countries most affected by China’s expansionism, are lobbying their neighbors and the U.S. to take a stronger and more unified line. Manila is touting a new idea of a “zone of peace” in the disputed areas in which the claimants would jointly administer the natural resources. It remains to be seen whether this idea will catch on, but Asean seems to be more staunch in its calls for an enforceable code of conduct to stop China’s creeping assertiveness.

Moreover, the U.S. has expanded its military and diplomatic footprint across South and East Asia. The deal President Barack Obama announced in Australia this week to base U.S. marines in Darwin is the latest example. Singapore will provide basing for new littoral combat ships. Vietnam has invited the U.S. Navy to use the Cam Ranh Bay port for provisioning and repairs. More announcements to let U.S. ships and planes operate out of local bases across the region can be expected.

Asean countries are also ramping up their own naval spending, adding patrol craft and submarines. China’s capabilities are expanding and its first aircraft carrier put to sea recently. But the size of the South China Sea and its proximity to the other nations considerably increase the costs to Beijing of asserting control against coordinated resistance.

All this raises the question: What can Beijing be thinking? The continuing threats from officials and bellicose rhetoric from the Chinese media are concerning. Yesterday the Global Times newspaper, which is a commercial offshoot of the People’s Daily, opined in an editorial that China should punish the Philippines for its insolence with economic means, and also prepare to strike militarily.

The region’s best chance of heading off Chinese adventurism is a united front. If it does not defend the principles of international law at stake here, China will be encouraged to make greater demands. Beijing still has a long way to go up the learning curve of how a great power should behave. In the meantime, Asean and its partners need to lend a hand to the better angels of its nature.

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