Increased security measures in China’s Xinjiang province unlikely to stem from Uighur attacks
IHS Jane’s Intelligence Weekly, 31 January 2014
Alleged ethnic Uighur militants set off two improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in Xinhe town, in the Aksu prefecture of Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region, on 24 January.
The attacks, at a hair salon and a vegetable market, came before a vehicle-borne IED (VBIED) was set off later on the same day. Police said that they shot dead six attackers in total, and another six attackers were killed by their own IEDs. Several others were wounded in the incident, and five people were arrested.
Although a number of IED attacks had been carried out by ethnic Han Chinese across China in recent years, incidents that involve ethnic Uighurs are unique in that they are typically perceived as militant terrorist attacks by the Chinese authorities and linked to the Uighur separatist movement. Such claims are usually difficult to verify because information regarding these cases is tightly controlled by the government. Although the authorities have enhanced security measures relating to the Uighur community, these measures are unlikely to bring an end to attacks. Attacks by Uighurs have largely been confined to Xinjiang, and have generally targeted police, government personnel, and in some cases Han businesses.
FORECAST
To date, no militant group has attacked energy assets in Xinjiang, and in particular, there has been no attack against foreign economic targets. The sophistication of these attacks also remains relatively low, and IED and knife attacks are likely to remain the militants’ preferred modus operandi.